Friday, 2nd July, 2010
Tour de France 2010: Lance Armstrong's best will be in week two


FORMER pro rider Scott Sunderland* rode in two editions of the Tour de France. He gives Peter Kogoy his views on this year's race.
 
      Article by Peter Kogoy for The Australian, Newspaper
 
 
 
TO WIN the Tour a rider must push his body to the limit for three weeks of solid racing and a little luck on the side.
 
Lance Armstrong winning seven Tours was no fluke. 
At his prime he was unstoppable. The same goes for Alberto Contador who has already won  twice.  
 
But this year's race is different.
I think the likes of  Andy and Frank Schleck, Christian Vande Velde, Bradley Wiggins, Cadel Evans are all potential winners.
 
I wouldn't write-off Cadel's chances despite him missing out at the Giro.
The course really suits his style of racing. It will all depend on how his body holds up heading into the third week. If he's still feeling good and strong then he's definitely a chance.  
Cadel has a much stronger group around him than the one he had at the Giro.
George Hincapie, Marcus Burghardt and Karsten Kroon as well as Cadel have all won stages at the Tour.
 
I believe the first week days of the Tour in The Netherlands and Belgium isn't as straight forward as it looks on paper.
If the wind blows off the North Sea as it so often does at this time of the year, there is the real danger of some serious crashes.
The big favourites will be nervous and will have to be on their toes.  
 
I once saw Miguel Indurain take 45 seconds on the road to Spa in Belgium.
This is a stage where Simon Gerrans from Sky can win.
 
Day four, day to Arenberg features seven sectors of pave (cobblestones).
Robbie McEwen doesn't live too far away and he knows the finish well, but it could still get tricky if the wind is blowing.
The Tour favourites could lose a lot of time here, while the next day's run to Reims again favours the sprinters.
It could well come down to another McEwen-Mark Cavendish-Thor Hushovd sprint finish.
 
The rest of the first week is more racing over undulating country before they hit the Alps which will give the climbers their first chance to stretch their legs.
 
Stage eight to Morzine is where I think Armstrong and Contador will begin to stamp their mark on the race.
 
Stage 13 to Revel is not easy.
Most of the riders will be thinking ahead to the Pyrenees on a stage when the wind can again spring up and more often than not the mercury reaches into the 40's.
 
I don't see any clear pattern for the overall general classification emerging much before they get to climb the Tourmalet on stage 16, while the grupetto (stragglers) will be hoping they don't outside the designated time limit.
 
The run into Bordeaux on the second last day should decide the green jersey, while the 52km individual time trial to Pauillac could put the cat amongst the pigeons for the overall.
 
There is nowhere to hide in a time trial. They don't call it the race of truth for no good reason.
This is where the overall will be decided, while the last day into Paris is one for the sprinter's as we saw a year ago with Mark Renshaw setting up Cavendish for the win. 
 
Since retiring from professional racing Scott Sunderland*  has turned his head to team management, having worked with former Tour de France winner Bjarne Riis at CSC, then starting up Cervelo Test Team and working with Dave Brailsford in setting up the News Corporation-backed Britain's Team Sky.