Thursday, 22nd July, 2010
 
Scott competed in all of the Grand Tours and was a director sportif for both Ivan Basso and Carlos Sastre during two Grand Tour wins. Every day Scott will give his insight into the Tour tactics.
 
Scott Sunderland's stage analysis:
 
 
 
 

Today we saw a very happy Mark Cavendish and a very disappointed Thor Hushovd. Thor was left in the perfect position today for the sprint but it just seems like the turbo isn’t working. It’s going to be very difficult for him to take the green jersey now. Petacchi seems to be going quite well so Thor’s really going to have to pull something out of the bag to get it off him.

From day one, Thor hasn’t been sprinting well in this Tour. On the first stage he was left off in a good position and if he was at 100% he would have won but he clearly wasn’t. Because of his broken collarbone in May he could only do endurance training before the Tour rather than specific sprint work and he’s paid for that. I thought he might have improved in that regard during the Tour, but if anything things have got worse unfortunately.

Cavendish’s situation is the opposite of Thor’s in that he’s got faster and faster as the Tour’s gone on and now he’s looking at winning five stages because unless there’s a crash or a puncture, Cav’s going to win on Sunday. The way he was riding today, everybody else was lucky that he’s got a fever, because he was almost looking around to say, “come on, come on, where are you?”

I think Cavendish’s team have really helped him. His management have really been superb. He had his problems earlier in the season and earlier in the Tour and people were writing him off a little bit, but within the HTC-Columbia team and management everybody kept believing in him and they’re all getting their rewards. They never doubted him and they kept fighting for him and working for him even when his form wasn’t as good as it is now. They created a very positive atmosphere around him and it shows how important that aspect of the sport is.

As for the overall situation, today was just a question of avoiding stupid crashes and recuperating for tomorrow by trying to keep the legs spinning. From this evening, both Andy Schleck and Alberto Contador will be already in time trial mode, getting the bikes ready and getting themselves tuned in to tomorrow’s important day.

For the sport, I’d like to think that it’ll be close and I believe it will. We saw from Andy’s effort on the Tourmalet that he can push out the watts when it’s needed and put in a big sustained effort like the one he’ll need tomorrow. On paper and technically Contador is a better time triallist, but Andy – like his brother Frank – has worked very, very hard on his time trialling this winter.

I’m anticipating that with the form that Andy has shown in this year’s Tour that he will get close to Contador, but can he get close enough? We’ll have to wait and see.

 
 
I think Andy Schleck did all he could really, although I did think that Saxo Bank or even Andy himself might have had a dig on the Soulor. As it was Andy was maybe a little isolated on the final climb and he was left one on one with Contador to try and drop him. That was always going to be difficult to do as they are just so equal in this moment.

On the Tourmalet, I don’t know whether from a tactical viewpoint Andy could have done any more than he did. He went to the front when he needed to and he made it hard, and he also dropped back to look and see if Contador was cracking. But he wasn’t, so there really wasn’t much more he could do. They were very evenly matched.

Right now, it looks as though Contador will win the Tour. I wouldn’t say it’s impossible for Schleck – the gap is only eight seconds – but the odds are really against him. Schleck’s been very consistent over the three weeks and he is improving in time trials, but whether he has the concentration to beat Contador over 52km is another matter.

That said, I think if Andy still had the 30 second lead that he had over Contador on Monday morning, he’d have a real chance. He’d have been started behind Contador and he would have had his times to aim at. Instead it’s Contador who now will know exactly what he needs to do.

Overall, I think Contador is at about the same level that he was at last year, it’s just that everyone else has closed the gap. Andy in particular has been more consistent this year and that’s made a big difference. As well as that Samuel Sanchez and Denis Menchov have been very impressive and that’s going to be another very interesting battle on Saturday.
 

Today went just how I expected with Saxo Bank resting as much as they could and letting Astana do all the work and take the responsibility that comes with the yellow jersey.

We’ve also seen Armstrong come back and have a go at a stage. Unfortunately it didn’t work out for him but the seven-time winner still showed respect for cycling and for the Tour, as well as being competitive. Likewise Cadel Evans who is doing everything to stay in the race and hats off to ASO for giving BMC a wildcard.

The French are having an amazing tour, that’s their sixth stage of the race.

In the battle for yellow we really saw the two top guys take it as easy as possible today. They know that it’s going to be down to the Tourmalet and it’s so exciting that it’s going to come down to that stage. If Schleck wants to win the Tour it’s going to have to happen on that climb. Everything hangs on that.

On another note we saw today that a few of the pre race favourites likes Basso and Rogers went out the back early on. They’re the ones that have been racing hard for a long time this season. They went big in the Giro or California and they’re coming undone now in the third week. It’s been such a tough Tour with so many good contenders and the top five all deserve to be where they are.
 
 
 
Let’s cut right to the chase, Contador should have waited for Schleck.

Andy had earmarked this stage as one where he'd open up the afterburners and you saw that in his attack, right up until he had his mechanical and Contador went past him.

Contador probably heard the problem but probably didn't know that Schleck had to stop and get off the bike to fix it himself and then he found himself in a position where he was attacking the yellow jersey during a mechanical and now he's in yellow.

The respect for the yellow jersey goes back a long way, and you heard it with the booing Contador got at the finish. They were not impressed. We've seen it in the past with Armstrong and Ullrich, and they both waited for each other and it showed great camaraderie and sportsmanship.

These guys are friends, they've been on holiday together and they obviously know each other quite well. Contador could have quite easily backed off the pedals and waited. In my book he should have. He would have looked like a man and he would have shown great respect for the yellow jersey. It could come back to bite him. I hope nothing happens to him but what happens if it does? Does Schleck say that he doesn't see it?
 
 
 
What a stage. The tactics and the closeness of this race coming into the third week are making the race so exciting. Contador is good, we knew that, but Schleck has stepped up a level and the Spaniard has given his rival a lot more respect than last year.

Today they both cancelled each other out and unless they’ve got a super steep finish I can’t really see either of them dropping each other. It could all come down to the final climb up the Tourmalet.

Today we also saw a race within the race as Menchov and Sanchez tore off the front while Andy and Alberto played mind games. It will be difficult for Menchov and Sanchez to get back into the race for yellow, however they will continue to try and at the very least they’ll battle it out between themselves for third place now.
Finally, everyone is saying that Schleck needs at least three minutes on Contador before the final time trial. I’m not so sure he needs that much at all. Remember everyone thought that Evans had the measure of Sastre in 2008 and the Spaniard pulled out an amazing ride in the final TT. Wearing the yellow jersey can give you something extra. 
 
 

Watching today's stage, what I noticed is that the psychological blow to Andy Schleck wasn't really dealt by Contador. Andy most likely started the day with an uncomfortable feeling, both a physical and mental aspect.

The fact that Alberto likes this climb and it's not on Andy's list of favourites became a weight that Andy was already carrying around before the start gun even went off.
Always intriguing to be witness to the power of positive thinking, or the lack of it.

Just as expected though, the upcoming Pyrenees will offer a great showdown between Mister Contador and Master Schleck. It should be a splendid spectacle we get served to start with on Sunday. As much excitement as the first couple of weeks of this 2010 Tour de France have had to offer, I am anticipating an even greater 3rd week. The battle for the top spot on the podium is still very much open but I'm equally looking forward to a good fight for the 3rd, 4th and 5th spot in GC.

It will be interesting to see what climbers Sanchez and Van Den Broek can serve up and how the stronger time trialists Leipheimer and Menchov are going to feel with the Pyrenees in the legs. A surprise is on the cards still, a monster break away in which top 5 contenders try to take back the time lost over the last fortnight, or a brave attempt of the pre-race favourites to go for a stage victory and a remount on GC, a lot can happen still and I believe the most dramatic stages are still ahead of us.

The Tour de France always produces a new talent coming to the fore, stepping up to another level and this year I believe that to be Belgium's Jurgen Van Den Broek. He definitely is the new kid on the block and as he seems to have that couple of lesser days already behind him, he might improve day by day and even prove to be a challenger for the podium!
 
 
The talk of the town is all about the final 500 meters.

My view is that Renshaw shouldn't have been kicked out of the race. He was doing his job, he had the barrier on his left, Julian Dean challenging on the right and he had no room to move. We know that sprints are dangerous and are competed at shoulder to shoulder but the head-butting was just him pushing on Dean’s shoulder.

For the integrity of the sport he deserved a yellow card but certainly not a red. He didn’t move his hands, he didn’t pull anyone so it was wrong to kick him out of the race.

The second incident where he appears to cut up Farrar is really difficult to call as well. It’s so hard to tell if it was intentional or if he even knew Farrar was there.

Either way we have a really exciting battle for the green jersey.

 
 
Stage 10, Chambery - Gap
 
Today’s stage went pretty much as expected in that a break went clear and Saxo Bank controlled things behind. It’s part and parcel of this time of the race. It was also Bastille Day of course, and everybody knows that on Bastille Day the break will only get clear once it has the right combination of French riders in it.

At the finish, I think Kiryienka possibly wasn’t as alert as he should have been. He probably could have done with winding the pace up a bit so that he was ready to respond when Paulinho jumped. As it was, he lost several bike lengths very quickly and it was always going to be a struggle to make up that ground, although he did come close.

In saying that, Paulinho was very strong, probably the strongest guy in the break. As well as that, he rode very intelligently and closed all the breaks. I thought he might even try to slip away himself in the finale, but he was obviously confident for the sprint.
I felt sorry for Aerts and Devenyns, they both rode hard on the front all day, and they both attacked on the last climb, but it just didn’t come off for them.

In general terms, this is probably the most important part of the Tour. We’re in the second week of the race now, so recovery gets more difficult due to accumulated fatigue and the heat. You have to remember to keep eating and drinking even on a day like today when the pace isn’t high, because it will have a huge impact on how you perform in the third week. Even on a day like today, you can’t afford to sit back and look at the scenery. Stages 10 to 16 are probably the hardest ones to get through in any Tour.

 
 
I’ve said from the beginning that Contador and Schleck are the two guys that stand above the rest. For third place and minor placings it's going to be really exciting, but for me Contador is ahead of Andy Schleck in the race for the final yellow jersey.

The Spaniard hasn’t been in the best over the last few days but by doing what he’s done he’s still probably in the driving seat by just following Schleck. It’s an intriguing game but the stages in the Pyrenees are going to be so, so vital.

As for the final place on the podium, I think it's going to be very exciting. Evans, Armstrong and Sastre have been eliminated but you’ve still got Menchov, Gesink, Leipheimer and Basso, who did a lot of work yesterday. Van den Broeck is there too and I’m looking forward to seeing him and Gesink trying to set up. Menchov might be the man though, he’s not done too much so far and he knows how to ride a three week race.

Finally, I have to add that we saw how much of a fighter Cadel is and you could see that he was fighting himself as much as the peloton with the emotions that he was going through on yesterday’s stage. Hopefully now he can have some time to heal but he needs to get advice on whether continuing with a fracture is the right idea. Continuing at 80 per cent in the Tour isn’t really a solution, it’s just prolonging the agony.

 
 
 
As we expected, the big boys came out to play on the stage and really put their cards on the table. And it was fascinating to watch.

As a fellow Australian, it was great to see Cadel Evans pull on the yellow jersey again. He rode another clever stage. Sometimes a crash can knock it out of you and you suffer in the finale, but he was good. Now we'll see how long he can keep it, and if he has the team to keep it. The BMC team at the Tour is a lot stronger than the one at the Giro but they now face a lot of work.

I think Andy Schleck was fantastic in the finale, and I was really happy to see him win. He was strong and to be honest he could have perhaps attacked earlier and earned even more time on the other guys. Saxo Bank has done a lot of work so far in the race and lost Frank Schleck but they will be on a high during the rest day and confident for later in the race.

Bradley Wiggins' confidence has probably taken a bit of hit but his Tour isn't over at all. Some people were surprised Team Sky took up the race on the Col de la Ramaz but you've got to go with your gut feeling and it is often better to take control of the race and set the pace. Wiggins knows his body better than most riders and rightly eased off on the climb to the finish so he didn't blow completely. There's still a long way to go for Wiggo in this Tour.

It was a pity to see Lance Armstrong lose so much time and be out of the race. His over chances are over, and after the first week of racing. He managed to avoid a lot of bad luck (in his Tour career) but it's all caught up with him this week and especially on this stage. He landed on his back on the second crash and that can cause huge problems to your breathing. I hope he can make it to Paris in his last ever Tour.

I'm sure Lance and all the riders will be happy to have reached the first rest day. They've been through a lot to get this far and many of them are battered and bruised. With the heat also a big factor, the second week and especially the stages in the Pyrenees will be about who recovers well.

The classification has been shuffled again and now we'll see what happens in week two. It seems like we've been through a lot already but there's still a long way to go.

 
 
 
Stage 7, Tournus - Station des Rousses
 
This was the first taste of the mountains for the riders and you could see that it was a bit of a shock for everyone: the guys who went on the attack and for the overall contenders who didn't.
If you consider that most of the riders arrived in Holland on the Tuesday before the Tour de France, that means that they haven't done any big climbing for almost two weeks.
That's a significant factor and explains why none of the big guys really went for it. The heat was also a factor and it often is in the Jura mountains because it can be a very humid but also very hot area in the summer.
It made for tough racing conditions and explains why Cancellara quickly lost contact and the yellow jersey.
 
Of course, none of the lack of aggression takes anything away from Sylvain Chavanel's ride.
He is on form and is using it to spectacular effect. He has always been a gutsy ride and won it will again. Chapeau to him and his team for getting the stage and the yellow jersey again.

Some people thought that Geraint Thomas might have a chance of taking the yellow jersey but while it would have been nice, I think Geraint still needs to develop and gain more experience before he's got a real shot in situations like that. He's super talented but he built his week in the spotlight on his excellent ride in the prologue and then a strong ride on the cobbles. Being able to transfer that to the climbs is a big ask.

He perhaps went a little deeper that he planned to this week but it was well worth it for him and Team Sky.
His second place overall kept the team car in second place in the race convoy and so was quickly there for punctures, for feeding and back up.
With Wiggins also under performing in the prologue, the strong ride by Thomas also kept the pressure off him and allowed him to get into the race. They are little details not everyone sees but they do make a difference.
Brad looked good on the climbs and should be up their with the other contenders on Sunday. He is probably now motivated and ready for his own spell in the spotlight.

It's time for the first real show down in the Alps on Sunday and it should be a cracker. I think the last time the Tour went up there from this direction was back in 1985 when Hinault was battling with Luis Herrera. I can remember watching it.

It's a real climb and could produce a real old battle amongst Evans, Armstrong, Contador, Schleck, Basso and Sastre. They all need to be up there if they are to be true overall contenders and may give it absolutely everything because they know they have the first rest day afterwards.

I understand that Evans didn't get his BMC team to go after Chavanel because he didn't want to take the yellow jersey straight away. That's a clever move by Evans and shows he's playing an intelligent and long game. With Chavanel in yellow, it means that Quick Step will be happy to control the first half of the stage and then he can perhaps take the jersey at the finish, enjoy having it on the rest day and BMC will only have to start defending it on Tuesday after they've rested up. Decisions like that can make the difference between and losing the Tour in Paris.

 
The Manx missile strikes again. And whatever nickname people use for Mark Cavendish, it has to be about his speed and his sprinting because that is what makes him so special.

It's been impressive how young Mark has managed to turn his season around with his two sprint victories. He's been through some tough times but what happened has grounded and matured him, both as a person and as a rider. The people in his team have worked hard to help him get things back on track and its all been worth it.

The key to both of Cav's successes was without a doubt Mark Renshaw. So much so, that I'm not sure that Cav would have won either sprint if he had not had Renshaw there to lead him out like he did.

Renshaw is absolutely clinical in the chaos and knows exactly what to do at the exactly the right time. He is probably as good as Giovanni Lombardi was when he used to lead out Mario Cipollini to victory so many times. Cav is the best sprinter in the peloton and Renshaw is the best lead out man in the peloton. It is a perfect combination. They are very different characters but fit together perfectly. Of course the work the rest of the HTC-Columbia team is vital too because they make sure the break is caught at the right time and look after Mark and Mark all day, so they can then do their stuff. All the team deserves to celebrate together for a job well done.

We've had a pretty crazy first week of drama, chaos, crashes and great racing. Some have said it's been the best week of the Tour for years. I'd agree. But now it's time for the overall contenders to take centre stage as the battle for overall success begins.

Trust me, the next three days will be important. They may not decide who wins the Tour de France but some riders are going to have to be aggressive and try and take back the time they lost on the cobbles. It's as if they are one goal down as the second half of the world cup final begins.

It's going to be fascinating watching what Lance Armstrong, Alberto Contador, Ivan Basso and Carlos Sastre do in the Alps. Andy Schleck and Cadel Evans can afford to play a waiting game and let the race come to them, especially Cadel, who should be able to move into yellow. Lance and Contador know they will gain some time in the Bordeaux time trial but Basso and Sastre have pull back time on the mountain finishes. They will have a three-week game plan but will have to be aggressive.

We're only just entering the second week of the Tour. It is the third week in the Pyrenees that will be decisive, But the way the race is balanced now, will make the Alps a lot more important than they seem on paper

 
 

We got what we were hoping for on this stage as the cobbles really lived up to expectations. It was tough, it was difficult, and we saw a reshuffle in a lot of areas. It was a good day for cycling.

Cervelo and Saxo Bank’s tactics were very clear, they wanted to make things as hard as possible and get their men up there, and they certainly achieved their goals. They were the two big winners today. I know Thor Hushovd was upset yesterday, but he made up for that today and he’s taken a big advantage for the green jersey too, so it was a great day for him.

Saxo Bank did very well to get Andy Schleck up the road with Cancellara, although the loss of Frank is a blow. He was a co-leader of sorts with Andy, and had as good a chance as the likes of Lance Armstrong or Cadel Evans of making the podium, but I still think that the race for the yellow jersey is really between Andy and Alberto Contador.

Contador did a good job today on the cobbles and he limited the gap to Andy Schleck quite well. The only mistake Astana made was at the finish, when Vinokourov rode on the front and Contador lost contact. I want to give the benefit of the doubt to Vinokourov and say that it was just a breakdown in communication. You have to remember that the crowds were massive and the riders were on the rivet, so you can see how that might happen. Either way, it’s unfortunate for Contador, you just can’t afford to give time away like that.

So the winners today were Hushovd and Andy Schleck, obviously, and Cadel Evans can be pleased too. Wiggins did well also, and obviously Geraint Thomas did a great ride.

The big losers were definitely Lance Armstrong, Ivan Basso and Carlos Sastre. Armstrong will not be happy, he punctured at a very bad moment and it was very difficult after that for him. Still though, it’s only the third stage, there’s a long, long way to go and anything can happen.

 

Stage 2, Brussels - Spa
There is a lot of debate about if the riders in the peloton did the right thing by waiting for the riders who had crashed and then protesting about the conditions. I can understand both sides of the argument and trying to analysis what happened is like walking a tightrope.

As a former rider I can understand the solidarity the riders showed and the fears they had about the conditions. I was involved in a nasty crash that almost ended my career - I was hit by a team car during a race - so I always feel it in my bones and my stomach turns when riders go down. Yet watching the race as a spectator, I can understand that people feel they were deprived of seeing some great racing.

It's not easy to say who is right or wrong. Personally I think the riders were right to wait after the crash but they should have contested sprint at the finish. No points were awarded at the finish and I hope that doesn’t affects who eventually wins the points jersey in Paris.

Some riders have criticized the race organiser ASO, but I think they're wrong. ASO are always very careful about safety. The descent and roads covered during the stage are all used in other races. Teams and riders had plenty of time to study then in the spring.

The riders have to remember that they're racing on public roads. I feel for them but they also have to toughen up a little. Some of them need some cement in their breakfast cereal.

It will now be interesting to see what happens on the cobbles on stage three. Who knows, perhaps the riders who didn't crash today, will go down tomorrow. Cycling is not held in a controlled environment like a football stadium and the unpredictability and the inherent risks are in many ways, what makes cycling so thrilling to watch and so unique as a sport.

I hope nobody crashes on the sections of pave and that we have a great day of bike racing and most of all a deserved winner.


Stage 1, Rotterdam - Brussels, July 4th
Today's stage started off quiet enough with the overall contenders and the sprinters teams happy to let the breakaway go right from the start. But you never know what's around the next corner in professional cycling. That’s what makes it so fantastic to watch.

It's easy to understand why the riders wanted a steady day and it was clear that the stage was always going to finish in a sprint.

Unfortunately the first crash happened on the tight corner. Everyone was still pretty fresh and there wasn't enough room for everyone to stay at the front.

I understand that Cavendish touched wheels with Bernie Eisel and went across the road. After that it was chaos with a lack of communication between the riders and teams. Fortunately nobody was seriously hurt.

Petacchi read the sprint well, using his experience to bridge the gap and time his acceleration just right on the slightly uphill finish. It was good to see Mark Renshaw up there but both Cav and Freire failed to score any points and so they are a day down in what could be close battle for the points jersey. Teams will focus on going for stage wins for the first week but then tally up the points and decide their strategy for the final part of the race.

I've studied the finale of Monday's stage and I hope the overall contenders have too. The run-in to the Stockeu climb is tricky and there are cobbles in the town at the bottom. The Stockeu could cause splits in the peloton and so cause problems for Cancellara and the other overall contenders. It's going to be another good stage to watch.

Prologue, Rotterdam, July 3rd

There was a lot of speculation and opinions about how the weather could affect the time trial on that parcours but I think at the end of the day it showed who the best guys were and who's on form.

Some were people were a little unlucky and got the heaviest rain but I think everyone faced difficult conditions and it was tough to judge the corners.

Yet Cancellara showed he's the best in the world. Tony Martin showed he's a huge talent and Farrar showed his speed for the sprints. Lance Armstrong did what he used to do, show his first card in the prologue and strike a psychological blow as well as gaining a few seconds. However Contador did a good ride too, responding well to Armstrong.

It was different for me watching the prologue on television instead of being there but I'm happy to be with my family right now. And I was happy to see the Team Sky guys like Geraint Thomas and Edvald Boasson Hagen do so well.

Like everyone else, I'm looking forward to watching three weeks of great racing.